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Canada’s housing market strengthened further in July, with sales rising 3.8% month-over-month, building on gains seen in each of the past three months.
Since March, national transactions are up 11.2%, led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area, where sales have rebounded 35.5% from their early-year lows, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
"July was another month of steadily rising sales activity, and almost 4% at that, suggesting the long-anticipated rebound in Canadian housing markets may finally be underway,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. "Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see how buyers react to the burst of new supply that typically shows up in September.”
New listings were little changed (+0.1%) in July, while sales climbed. That pushed the national sales-to-new listings ratio up to 52%, up from 50.1% in June and 47.4% in May.
"Pent-up demand temporarily sidelined earlier in the year returned to markets with some force last month, supported by ample choice in Toronto and Vancouver,” noted TD economist Rishi Sondhi. "Indeed, it looks as though the sales recovery that should have happened earlier in the year after significant rate relief in 2024 was simply delayed some months.”
Prices hold flat
The national average sale price was $672,784 in July, a 0.6% increase from a year ago. The MLS Home Price Index was unchanged for the month and down 3.4% year-over-year.
Analysts expect the gradual recovery in sales to continue through the second half of the year, though most caution that economic uncertainty and still-loose conditions in key markets could keep price growth muted.
July market snapshot
• Home sales: +3.8% m/m, +6.6% y/y
• New listings: +0.1% m/m
• Sales-to-new listings ratio: 52% (long-term avg: 54.9%)
• MLS HPI: 0.0% m/m, -3.4% y/y
• Average home price: $672,784 (+0.6% y/y)
• Months of inventory: 4.4 (below long-term avg of 5.0)
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